weather forecasting

The Probability of Precipitation: What Does it Mean? Part 2, A New Resource

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A while back I posted on this topic, starting with my father-in-law’s quirky (but charming) interpretation of probabilities quoted in weather reports, and continuing to discuss the meaning of probability in the context of weather forecasts. I suggested that someone ought to check on the accuracy of such reports, and listed a few resources. There … Read more

The Probability of Precipitation: What Does it Mean?

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My father-in-law runs a fruit farm, and made an interesting observation one day about weather prediction: If the weather report says 40% chance of rain, it never rains. If it says 50%, then maybe it rains, maybe not. But if it says 70%, then it rains for sure. This may seem self-contradictory, but it raises … Read more