The Probability of Precipitation: What Does it Mean? Part 2, A New Resource

A while back I posted on this topic, starting with my father-in-law’s quirky (but charming) interpretation of probabilities quoted in weather reports, and continuing to discuss the meaning of probability in the context of weather forecasts. I suggested that someone ought to check on the accuracy of such reports, and listed a few resources. There are plenty of papers published in technical literature analyzing forecasting models, but it would be nice to have some sort of analysis that is accessible to those of us who are not experts in the field.

Here is an interview with Eric Floehr at John D. Cook‘s very interesting blog. Floehr does exactly what I had wanted (assesses the accuracy of published weather forecasts), although for a cost. How curious am I?

(This post first appeared at my other (now deleted) blog, and was transferred to this blog on 22 January 2021.)