probability

Two Nice Probability Problems

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Over at Freakonometrics, here is a pair of nice probability problems. The first problem also appears here as Problem #5. A number of solutions for your consideration are here. A very elegant solution by Ted Hwa is here. (This post first appeared at my other (now deleted) blog, and was transferred to this blog on … Read more

The Probability of Precipitation: What Does it Mean?

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My father-in-law runs a fruit farm, and made an interesting observation one day about weather prediction: If the weather report says 40% chance of rain, it never rains. If it says 50%, then maybe it rains, maybe not. But if it says 70%, then it rains for sure. This may seem self-contradictory, but it raises … Read more